Big South teams embrace playoff bid

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Almost everywhere you look, Liberty is considered the prohibitive favorite to win the Big South football title this fall.

The rest of the conference, however, has motivation that goes way beyond feeling overlooked by the voters.

The chance to go to the FCS playoffs is all the buzz among Big South teams. The conference champion will gain an automatic bid for the first time when the playoffs expand from 16 to 20 teams in late November.

The Northeast Conference champion will also advance to the playoffs with a new automatic bid, and two more at-large selections will fill the other two spots.

Big South head coaches and selected media installed Liberty as their preseason favorite for the fourth straight year in a poll released at their kickoff luncheon today in Charlotte, N.C. Liberty gained 11 of 13 first-place votes. Stony Brook, which beat Liberty and tied the Flames for the title last season - though both teams stayed home during the playoffs - was selected second, followed by Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, Gardner-Webb, VMI and Presbyterian.

"The automatic bid puts our program and our conference on the same playing field as the rest of the Top 25 FCS programs in the country," Liberty coach Danny Rocco said. "We've strived each year to be Big South Conference champions, but we also want to be a program of national prominence and in order to do that you have to play at the national level. We've just missed out during the last few years, but this year we know our goal is attainable if we just take care of business in our own league."

There's good reason for the Flames to believe they will win the Big South's first automatic bid to the playoffs. The Flames have gone 26-8 overall and 14-1 in the conference over the last three seasons, though they haven't received an at-large bid.

They were 8-3 overall and 5-1 in the conference last season, and return 14 starters and 43 lettermen from a squad that led the FCS in scoring offense (36.4 ppg) a year ago.

Mike Brown is the Big South's preseason offensive player of the year, ready to take over the quarterback duties full-time after starring as a wide receiver and part-time signal-caller last season. Brown and fellow returnees Aldreakis Allen and Sir Chauncey Holloway rushed for a combined 25 touchdowns, and the Flames add Massachusetts running back Corey Davis to the backfield. Brown also has a go-to target in Chris Summers, who caught 46 passes and is part of a dynamite group of wide receivers across the conference.

"The key to winning the Big South title, as in most leagues, is depth at key positions and experience," Rocco said. "We had a younger team last year that was able to carry on a now growing tradition here at Liberty and I'm excited to see what they can do this year. Most of our skill-position players are back this year and we are coming off the best spring workouts I've experienced since I've been at Liberty."

Liberty and Gardner-Webb tied for the conference high with eight selections on the preseason squad. Gardner-Webb will be a physical team with the likes of offensive guard Corey O'Daniel and linebackers Marty Patterson and Jeffery Williams, who is coming off an injury-plagued season.

The biggest title challengers to Liberty figure to be Stony Brook, which returns junior quarterback Michael Coulter and junior running back Edwin Gowins, and adds a bunch of influential transfers; Coastal Carolina, which has an key transfer as well in quarterback Aramis Hillary, formerly of the University of South Carolina; and Charleston Southern, which has a superb wide receiver and return specialist in Gerald Stevenson, but also has to improve defensively.

BIG SOUTH PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches and Selected Media)

1. Liberty (11 first-place votes), 103 points;

2. Stony Brook (1), 81;

3. Coastal Carolina, 68;

4. Charleston Southern (1), 65;

5. Gardner-Webb, 54;

6. VMI, 31;

7. Presbyterian, 18

PRESEASON BIG SOUTH ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM

Offensive Player of the Year - Mike Brown, QB, Liberty

Defensive Player of the Year - Marty Patterson, LB, Gardner-Webb

Offense

QB- Mike Brown, Liberty. RB- Edwin Gowins, Stony Brook; Patrick Hall, Gardner- Webb. WR- Gerald Stevenson, Charleston Southern; James Perry III, Gardner- Webb; Chris Summers, Liberty. TE- David Duran, Coastal Carolina. OL- Corey O'Daniel, Gardner-Webb; Paul Fenaroli, Stony Brook; Alex Stadler, Liberty; Jordan Lancaster, Charleston Southern; Jamie Dunaway, Gardner-Webb.

Defense

DL- Joel Walton, Charleston Southern; Asa Chapman, Liberty; Josh Wine, VMI; Quinton Davis, Coastal Carolina. LB- Marty Patterson, Gardner-Webb; Jeffery Williams, Gardner-Webb; Doncel Bolt, Liberty; Emilio Calvin, VMI. DB- Josh Norman, Coastal Carolina; Cedric McGowan, Gardner-Webb; Brent Vinson, Liberty; KaJuan Lee (tie), Liberty; Chris Kuzdale (tie), Charleston Southern.

Specialists

PK- Matt Bevins, Liberty. P- Marc Ray, VMI. LS- Daniel Bonifas, Coastal Carolina. KR- Tyson Petty, Gardner-Webb. PR- Gerald Stevenson, Charleston Southern.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.